Comparative epidemiology of poliovirus transmission

Scientific Reports

Corresponding authors: Navideh Noori, nnoori@uga.edu; John M. Drake, john@drakeresearchlab.com; and Pejman Rohani, Rohani@uga.edu

Since the widespread introduction of the polio vaccine in the mid 1900s, poliomyelitis, an acute viral disease, has been almost eradicated, with a decline of over 99% in the annual wild poliovirus (WPV) incidence. However, challenges including conflict, religious beliefs, and social upheaval have prevented child vaccination efforts in some parts of the world, allowing the virus to persist in the environment. Researchers have speculated that other factors may be facilitating the virus’s large-scale circulation in the environment, but these factors are poorly understood. A recent study conducted by CEID members Navideh Noori, John M. Drake & Pejman Rohani identifies key covariates of geographical variation in polio transmission patterns by looking at connections between country-specific annual disease incidence, demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors. They assessed how these variables contribute to the effectiveness of computer-generated models for predicting polio transmission, and found that access to sanitation, population density, forest cover and routine vaccination coverage were the strongest predictors of polio incidence. They also found the the frequency of poliovirus fadeout depends on both population size and demography, which are important factors that should be considered in eradication policies. Continuing to disentangle the factors that continue to drive poliovirus transmission across the landscape, both locally and globally, are necessary for public health efforts and to achieve complete eradication of this adverse disease.

Noori, Navideh, et al. “Comparative Epidemiology of Poliovirus Transmission.” Scientific Reports, vol. 7, no. 1, 2017, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17749-5.