Corresponding author: Michelle V. Evans, mvevans@uga.edu
While vector-borne diseases have long been a major public health issue, the rate at which new diseases are emerging is increasing dramatically, making it difficult for researchers to keep up with effective vaccines and prevention protocols. Gaps in our current understanding of disease emergence also hinder the ability to adequately plan for outbreaks or target virus surveillance. To help identify the increasing number of potential emerging diseases, CEID member Michelle Evans, in collaboration with members Courtney Murdock and John Drake, presents a data-driven ‘watch-list’ of Flaviviridae viruses that have a high potential to emerge in the USA. The list, compiled using statistical techniques, includes many well-known arboviruses including West Nile, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika viruses that could emerge within the states. The diseases were selected based on known associations of the flaviviruses with mosquito species currently found in the USA. The figure on the right shows the resulting network of potential virus-vector pairs, or predicted links, in the USA. Currently, the watch-list is ordered by the number of predicted vectors for each virus, providing a crucial starting point guide future empirical and modeling efforts in the emergence of mosquito-borne pathogens. The authors suggest that future directions will need to incorporate predictive modeling techniques to help guide and formulate disease-prevention strategies.
Evans, Michelle V., et al. “Anticipating Emerging Mosquito-Borne Flaviviruses in the USA: What Comes after Zika?” Trends in Parasitology, 2018, doi:10.1016/j.pt.2018.02.010.